If Emily Rosa met Thomas Bayes ...

Twenty years ago, 11-year-old Emily Rosa and her parents published a study in the Journal of the American Medical Association about Therapeutic Touch (TT). The study challenged the claim that TT practitioners could manipulate human body energy fields without physical contact.

Emily designed an experimental test where TT practitioners would try to detect her hand’s location through their supposed energy sensing skills. Her hypothesis was that if TT was real, practitioners would correctly identify her hand’s location in at least 8 out of 10 trials.

She conducted two studies:

1. First study: 15 TT trainees participated
2. Follow-up study: 13 TT trainees (7 from the first study)

The results showed the TT practitioners' accuracy was equivalent to random guessing.

Bayesian Reanalysis

Using Bayesian statistical analysis, we can reanalyze Emily’s original data. The probability of TT practitioners successfully detecting her hand was extremely low (around 0.018), providing strong evidence against the effectiveness of Therapeutic Touch.

Conclusion

Despite Emily’s rigorous scientific study published in a prestigious medical journal, the Therapeutic Touch official website continues to operate. This suggests more scientific education is needed to help people think critically about pseudoscientific claims.

The study demonstrates how even young scientists can contribute meaningful research when they apply the scientific method properly.